World Test Championship Final 2021 – Ind Vs NZ- 18-22 Jun – Prediction

International Cricket Council (ICC) World Test Championship (WTC) Final will be played between India (Ind) and New Zealand (NZ) at Rose Bowl, Southampton, England from 18 Jun onwards. The entire cricketing world is eagerly looking forward to this clash between two cricketing giants. I shall write about this historic final under the following headings:-

History of ICC World Test Championship
Southampton Cricket Pitch
Analysis of Teams
Factors Affecting Performance of Indian Team
Comparison Of Teams
Factors Affecting Outcome Of Match
Match Prediction
Conclusion

History Of ICC World Test Championship

ICC WTC is a league of competitions for test cricket run by the International Cricket Council which was started on 01 Aug 2019 and will finish with the final test match. Nine teams participated in this competition and played test matches with each other. Points were allotted for all wins, losses, draws, and tied matches for all series. At the end of the competition, India with 520 points was ranked number 1 and New Zealand with 420 points was ranked number 2. Australia and England were ranked number 3 and 4 respectively.

Cricket Pitch at Southampton

The cricket ground is called Rose Bowl. The ground has two pitches – the primary one which is dry and aids batsmen and spin bowlers and the second one which has slight patches of grass thus aiding seam bowlers. Overall, It is believed that Spinners will be able to exploit the pitch better than seamers. As of now, we do not know which pitch will be used for the match. If that is the situation then both the teams will try and keep a happy mix of seamers and spinners in the team. Moreover, the English weather is unpredictable and plays a spoilsport as we witnessed on Day 3 of the first test match between England and New Zealand in early June. If the weather remains dry and it doesn’t rain, the wicket will start to crumble from Day 3 onwards thus aiding spinners.

The Rose Bowl has only hosted six Tests to date. Out of these six, three Tests have witnessed a result. England has won two matches in Southampton both against India- once in 2014 and again in 2018. West Indies had beaten England at the same venue in July 2020.

Listen to the Podcast: Sports Update by Kukikol

Analysis Of Teams

Let me clearly point out that a player can continue to retain the good form for not more than two months at a stretch. So, if we go purely by stats, a player who scored centuries a year ago or three months ago is most likely to struggle now in scoring runs. Past remains a history.

The lifetime stats of each player tell us about the capability of a player. It is more of educational information. I will cover these stats for both teams. But, a quick analysis of the performance of both the teams when they played two tests in early 2020 will tell us the real potential of each player.

New Zealand

Journey To Final. Here is the journey of NZ till entry into finals. NZ had played 11 tests, won 7 and lost 4. The breakup is something like this- Drew 1-1 with Sl in SL, lost 0-3 to Aus in Aus, beat India 2-0 at home, beat WI 2-0, and beat Pakistan 2-0.

The Current Tour of England. They are having a heyday currently on tour to England. Their players have acclimatized well and the management got the golden opportunity to test their bench strength in both the tests prior to taking on India in the WTC Final. NZ played two test matches against England. The first match ended in a draw due to one complete day wasted due to rain. They beat England comprehensively in the second test by 8 wickets. Winning the two-match series will certainly boost their confidence before a final clash with India on 18 Jun. Williamson, Wattling, C de Grandhomme, Santner, and Southee were rested for the second test. I think Williamson is not fit and needed rest before the finals. In the second test, D Mitchell, Matt Henry, Ajaz Patel, and Will Young were played.

Let’s have a look at the outstanding performances in these two matches. In the first match, the main scorers were Devon Convay- 200 and H Nichols- 61. No other batsman could score more than 25. On the bowling front, Southee with 7 wickets and Jamiesen and Wagner with 3 wickets each were the star performers. In the second match, the main scorers were Devon Convay and Ross Taylor 80 each and Will Young 82. The leading wicket-takers were Trent Boult and Matt Henry 6 wickets each, N Wagner 4 wickets, and Ajaz Patel 2 wickets. So, the batsmen and bowlers in good form clearly stand out. They are D Convay, Ross Taylor, Will Young, H Nichols, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, N Wagner, and Jamisen. None of the spinners could make a mark.

India Tour of New Zealand. Now, let us analyze the series India played in NZ from 24 Jan to 04 Mar 2020. India won all five T 20 matches, NZ won all three ODIs, and both the test matches. I will only talk about the test matches. In the first test, Williamson scored 89, Taylor 44, Grandhomme 43, and Jamiesen 44. In the second test, only Latham scored 52 each in both the innings and the remaining batsmen failed to get a good start. The main wicket-takers in the test match were Southee 14 wickets, Boult 11 wickets, Jamiesen 9 wickets, and Wagner 2 wickets. Patel failed to pick up any scalp in the first test he played. Santner did not play any test.

My Playing Eleven Going by the stats of the entire NZ squad, current form in England, and performance during India tour of NZ, my pick of playing eleven will be something like this- Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson (Captain), Ross Taylor, Henry Nichols, BJ Wattling (wicket-keeper), Collin de Grandhomme, Kyle Jamieson, Neil Wagner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult.

If Williamson is rested, Then, most likely, T Blundell (wicket-keeper batsman) will play in his place since he has played more matches and averages very well. Michel Santner had bruised his little finger and was ruled out of the second test against England. Instead, Ajaz Patel was included in the playing squad. If Santner is declared fit then one of the four pacers will have to warm up the bench and most probably Trent Boult will be axed. NZ also has an option of playing A Patel who picked up two wickets in each innings of the second test.

Stats of Likely Playing Eleven. The stats of playing eleven are always very informative and of great concern for all as they bring out the capability/potential of a player. Here are the stats of my pick of NZ team.

Sr. No	Player	ICC Test Ranking	Matches	Average	200s	100s	50s
1	T Latham	14	57	41.97	–	11	20
2	D Convay	77	3	76.50	1	1	1
3	K Williamson	1	84	53.60	–	4	32
4	R Taylor	19	107	45.20	–	19	35
5	H Nichols	8	38	43.46	–	7	11
6	Wattling	30	74	42.62	–	8	19
7	C de Grandhomme	41	25	36.18	–	1	8

Sr. No.	Bowler	ICC Test Ranking	Matches	Wickets	5W	10W
8	T Southee	3	78	309	12	1
9	T Boult	13	71	281	8	1
10	K Jamiesen	20	7	39	4	1
11	I Wagner	5	53	226	9	0

Strengths

1 Strong top Order. Both the openers T Latham and D Convay have been giving a good start in recent times. Their defense is solid while scoring at a quick pace. Latham has played 57 matches and has scored eleven 100s and twenty-one 50s. Convay has played 3 matches and scored one double century, one 100, and one 50. Isn’t this an amazing feat? Kane Williamson is ranked Number 1 batsman in ICC test ranking and can play both spin and pace very well. In 84 matches, he has scored four 100s and thirty-two 50s. Ross Taylor who is also known as Mr Dependable is the most experienced player in the team having played 107 tests. He has scored nineteen 100s and thirty-five 50s.

2 Very Good Pacers. Southee, Boult, Wagner, and Jamiesen are in terrific form rattling wickets against all oppositions. In the series against England, the pacers shared 29 wickets and the spinners could capture only 4 wickets. Southee and Wagner are ranked Number 3 and 5 in ICC rankings. Southee has taken 309 wickets in 78 matches with twelve 5 wicket hauls and one 10 wicket haul. Jamiesen is a very promising bowler who has captured 39 wickets in just 7 matches.

Weaknesses

Weak Middle order. The middle-order is not in great form and is devoid of high scores crumbling in quick succession.
Very Weak Spin Attack. Santner was wicketless in the first test and did not play in the second test against England. Ajaz Patel captured only 4 wickets in the second test but never looked like troubling the batsmen. Williamson is just a part-time spinner.
Form of Williamson. He had suffered an elbow injury due to which he joined Sunrisers Hyderabad very late in the Indian Premier League. He played in only the first test match and missed out on the second leaving a big question mark on his fitness. There is a possibility of him being ruled out for the final test.
Uncomfortable Playing Spin. Past records have indicated that all batsmen barring Ross Taylor and Williamson are not very comfortable against spinners.

Key Performers

Having analyzed the team, it is time to list out the likely key performers:-

Main scorers could be – D Convay, H Nichols, BJ Wattling, K Williamson.

Main Wicket takers could be -T Southee, N Wagner, K Jamiesen

India

Journey To Finals. India had played 13 tests, won 10, lost 2, and drawn 1 The record of test matches played goes something like this. Beat WI 2-0 in WI, beat SA 3-0 at home, beat Bangladesh 2-0 at home, lost 0-2 to NZ in NZ, and beat Eng 3-0 at home.

The team landed in England on 03 June and had practice sessions in long nets after a few days in quarantine. There was no match practice planned for the team prior to the finals. Let us quickly cover the performance of the Indian team in NZ and Australia where the playing conditions are similar to what will be encountered at Southampton.

India tour of NZ. In NZ, they won all five T20 matches whereas NZ won all three ODIs and both the tests. In the first test, Mayank Agarwal scored 34 and 58, Rahane 46 and 29. In the second test, Shaw scored 54 and 14, Pujara 54 and 24, and Hanuma Vihari 55 and 9. No batsman could make a mark in batting The NZ pacers were devastating and never allowed any batsman to settle down. The main wicket-takers were Bumrah 6 wickets, M Shami and Ishant Sharma 5 wickets, Jadeja and Ashwin 3 wickets each.

India tour of Aus. India toured Aus from 27 Nov 2020 to 19 Jan 2021. Aus won two ODIs whereas India won 1. India won two T20s and Aus won 1. Thereafter, India comprehensively won the four test matches series establishing their supremacy in test cricket.

Let us recollect the top performers against Aus. On the batting front, V Kohli, A Rahane, S Gill, R Sharma, C Pujara, R Pant put up brilliant performances. The batsmen showed tremendous grit and determination while facing intimidating bowling by Australian pacers. Even the middle order and the tail-enders batted bravely against fiery pacers. The bowlers quickly adapted to the conditions and managed to unsettle opponents as the series progressed. An astonishing display of high-class cricket by India in the fourth test match resulted in a big win thus clinching the series. In bowling, Bumrah captured 11 wickets, Ashwin got 12 wickets, Jadeja got 5 wickets, M Siraj 13 wickets. W Sundar and S Thakur captured 4 and 7 wickets respectively in the fourth test match they played. The young brigade bowlers namely Siraj, Thakur, Natarajan, Saini, and Sundar bowled with a lion’s heart.

My Playing Eleven. Going by the stats, current form, and performances of players in series against NZ, Australia, and England (home series) my pick of playing eleven would be Rohit Sharma, Shubham Gill, Chiteshwar Pujara, A Rahane, Virat Kohli, Rishab Pant, Ajay Jadeja, R Ashwin, Jasprit Bumrah, M Shami and I Sharma. I would have picked M Siraj in place of I Sharma but the experience of Ishant will be better utilized in the English conditions.

Here are the stats of the playing eleven selected by me

Sr. No	Player	ICC Test Ranking	Matches	Average	200s	100s	50s
1	R Sharma	7	38	46.70	1	7	12
2	S Gill	72	7	34.36	–	–	3
3	C Pujara	13	85	46.60	3	18	29
4	V Kohli	5	91	52.38	7	27	25
5	A Rahane	15	73	41.29	–	12	23
6	R Pant	6	20	45.27	–	3	6
7	R Jadeja	89	51	39.19	–	1	15

Bowlers ICC Test Ranking Matches Wickets 5W 10W

Sr. No.	Bowler	ICC Test Ranking	Matches	Wickets	5W	10W
7	R Jadeja	16	51	220	9	1
8	R Ashwin	2	78	409	30	7
9	J Bumrah	11	19	83	5	–
10	M Shami	18	50	180	5	–
11	I Sharma	17	101	303	11	1

Strengths

Strong Openers. Rohit and Gill are formidable openers. Both in their own styles have a cool temperament to give India a good start. Rohit is ranked 7th in ICC rankings and has scored one double hundred, seven 100s, and twelve 50s. Gill showed great promise in the series against Australia with a reasonable contribution in each match and scoring 91 in the decider.
Experienced Top Order. Pujara and Kohli are experienced campaigners having played 85 and 91matches respectively. Kohli ranked number 7 in ICC ranking has scored seven double hundreds. twenty-five 100s and twenty-seven 50s. Pujara, ranked number 3 in ICC rankings has scored three double hundreds, eighteen 100s and twenty-nine 50s in 85 matches played. Both can adapt to any playing conditions. Pujara was rock solid in the series against Australia.
Dependable Middle Order. Rahane, Jadeja, and Ashwin are in good form and can tackle pace as well as spin comfortably while scoring runs at ease. In 73 matches, Rahane has scored twelve hundreds and twenty-three 50s. He had scored 112 in the second test against Australia. Pant is ranked 7 in ICC rankings and has scored three hundreds and six fifties in just 20 matches.
Very Strong Spin Attack Spin duo of Ashwin and Jadeja can dislodge even the best of batsmen on their day. Ashwin is ranked number 2 in ICC rankings, has played 78 matches with thirty 5 wickets and seven 10 wickets hauls- an incredible achievement indeed. Jadeja is ranked number 16 and has to his credit nine 5 wickets haul and one 10 wicket haul in 51 matches.

Weaknesses

Playing With Dukes Ball. This will be the first time that India will be playing with the Dukes ball which is stitched in six rows to hold the ball together for a longer period and keeping the shape of the ball intact. This helps seam bowling in overcast conditions and on a grassy wicket.
New Opening Pair. Rohit Sharma and Shubham Gill have not played much cricket together as openers. Settling down to each other’s style may take some time.
Defense Against Rising Deliveries. Not many players are comfortable playing rising deliveries.

Key Performers

Having analyzed the team it is time to list out key performers.

Main scorers could be – V Kohli, A Rahane, C Pujara, and R Pant.

Main Wicket Takers could be – J Bumrah, R Ashwin, and R Jadeja

Factors affecting the performance of Indian Team

Two main factors would be-

Acclimatization Team India reached England on 03 June and will be launched straightaway into the final test match without any official match practice and after acclimatization for just about two weeks.
Form of Players. India last played an ODI match against England on 28 Mar 2021. After that the players had a taste of T20 cricket in suspended IPL but since then, they did not play any test cricket. There has been a break of 3 months which will affect the form of players for test cricket and will be a big disadvantage for India.

Comparison of Teams

After having analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, I will now compare both teams to deduce which one is likely to win the match.

India will be high in confidence after two huge series wins. One against Australia and the second one against England. These wins will boost the confidence of the players.
The top order of both teams is at par.
The middle-order of India is stronger and has the capability to play longer innings as demonstrated in Australia and the home series against England. NZ middle order is weaker and likely to crumble exposing the tail. This has been noticed in the ongoing series against Eng.
India has very strong spinners who will dictate the terms as the match progresses.
NZ pacers are a shade better.
Overall, India is a stronger side – stronger batting lineup and spin attack.

Match Prediction

This will be a very close contest where pacers will rule for the first two days and spinners will come into play on the remaining days to control the match. Unless the rains play a spoilsport, the match will be a decisive one.

Likely Winner. Chances of India Winning-60 percent and New Zealand Winning- 40 percent.

Conclusion

The Indian team is very spirited, players are fighters and they will play with a resolve to win. Beating Australia in their home grounds is a classic example of Indian mastery of this noble game. Cricket is all about quickly adapting to the playing conditions to put the opponents at a great disadvantage. The stats and records are mere histories before the start of a match. Each match is a new challenge, and only mental robustness matters. India will be a dark horse who will come from behind to win the match. The trump card for Indian victory will be a late surge by Spinners.

Polls

You can use your cricketing skills to predict the winner of this contest by casting your vote in the poll.